Total infrastructure spend is estimated to have been $57.3bn in 2014. This figure is projected to increase to $138.6bn by 2025.
The 2025 figure represents a downward revision from our previous forecast. This is largely driven by a revision of historical estimates and spending. Compound annual growth rate to 2025 remains approximately the same at 8.4%. The outlook for extraction and manufacturing investment has weakened since our previous forecast; this is offset by a stronger outlook for telecoms and some transport subsector spending (ports, rail).
Infrastructure spend was equivalent to 6.4% of GDP in 2014. The new administration’s infrastructure programme is expected to accelerate spending before 2019, peaking at 7.7% of GDP in 2017. As the Indonesian economy matures, infrastructure spend in Indonesia will likely account for a slightly lower proportion of GDP, falling to 5.3% by 2025.
Indonesia’s share of regional and global infrastructure spend is expected to remain broadly stable throughout the forecast period, at around 4% and 2% respectively.
Investment in health and education infrastructure is expected to grow particularly strongly from a low base – by more than 10% per year on average between 2015 and 2025. As such, social infrastructure is expected to account for 10% of total spend by 2025, up from 7% in 2014.
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