The ICAEW Economic Insight: Southeast Asia, is a quarterly forecast for the region prepared by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales directly for the finance profession.

Q4 2018 Summary – Positive 2019 Outlook Despite US-China Trade Spat

• With the global macroeconomic context still reasonably constructive, ICAEW expects GDP in the Southeast Asia (SEA) region in 2019 to slow to 5%, after an estimated 5.3% this year, because of the US-China trade conflict and tighter global monetary conditions.
• ICAEW expects US-China tensions and the resultant slowdown in Chinese demand to weigh significantly on SEA growth, especially in Singapore and Malaysia, where trade ties with China matter greatly but Indonesia and the Philippines will hardly be affected.
• Continued domestic demand should act as a buffer against trade headwinds. Expansionary fiscal policy will help, with fiscal spending expected to be strong in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines ahead of upcoming elections in H1 2019. ICAEW expects monetary policy to become less supportive as central banks raise interest rates.

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